Bitcoin is nonetheless increasingly seen as a tool for diversifying portfolios and a hedge against currency devaluation and frothy equity markets. Five bitcoin-centric exchange traded funds ETFs have launched since the start of , pointing to a marked increase in appetite among retail investors. But larger-scale investments have also become more commonplace, suggesting greater institutional involvement. In , fewer than 1, people or institutions held more than 1, bitcoin.

This week, more than 2, held stakes of equivalent or greater size, according to data from the cryptocurrency data tracker Glassnode. Cryptoasset investments are available on many big investment platforms in the UK, though whether it should be offered to non-professional investors has long divided opinion. Some say the risks to retail investors remain profound. The largest holders of bitcoin remain those investment houses which are focused on cryptocurrency and digital assets, rather than traditional asset managers.

## • Bitcoin price | Statista

But other companies are buying too. However, Mr Khalaf said retail investors remained at risk. Cryptocurrency investments are not covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme if something goes wrong. Al-Yahyaee et al. Balcilar et al. Aharon and Qadan show that normally used variables have limited forecasting power for Bitcoin prices. Khuntia and Pattanayak explore time-varying linear and nonlinear dependence in Bitcoin returns.

Kristoufek finds that the trade-exchange ratio plays an essential role in driving Bitcoin price fluctuations in the long run. Ciaian et al. Another issue investigated in the literature is whether overreactions exhibit seasonality. De Bondt and Thaler show that they tend to occur mostly in a specific month of the year, whilst Caporale and Plastun b do not find evidence of seasonal behaviour in the US stock market. Note also that according to Khuntia and Pattanayak market efficiency in the cryptocurrency market is evolving over time.

Caporale and Plastun a find evidence in favour of the overreaction hypothesis, whilst Bartos report that the cryptocurrency market immediately reacts to the arrival of new information and absorbs it; as a result prices are not affected by overreactions. Whilst most studies examine abnormal returns and the subsequent price behaviour in general, contrarian movement for a given time interval day, week, and month , the current paper focuses on the frequency of abnormal price changes.

We will aim to show that the frequency of abnormal price changes can be a useful tool for price predictions in the cryptocurrency market. The first step in the analysis of overreactions is their detection. There are two main methods. One is the dynamic trigger approach, which is based on relative values. Wong and Caporale and Plastun a in particular propose to define overreactions on the basis of the number of standard deviations to be added to the average return.

The other is the static approach which uses actual price changes as an overreaction criterion. Caporale and Plastun b compare these two methods in the case of the US stock market and show that the static approach produces more reliable results. Therefore, this will also be used here. The static approach was introduced by Sandoval and Franca and developed by Caporale and Plastun b.

Returns are defined as:. The next step is analysing the frequency distribution by creating histograms. Thresholds are then obtained for both positive and negative overreactions, and periods can be identified when returns were above or equal to the threshold. Such a procedure generates a data set for the frequency of overreactions at a monthly frequency , which is then divided into 3 subsets including, respectively, the frequency of negative and positive overreactions, and of them all.

The frequency of overreactions is informative about price movements in the cryptocurrency market. There is a body of evidence suggesting that typical price patterns appear in financial markets after abnormal price changes. The relationship between the frequency of overreactions and BitCoin prices is investigated here by running the following regressions see Eqs.

The size, sign and statistical significance of the coefficients provide information about the possible influence of the frequency of overreactions on BitCoin log returns. To assess the performance of the regression models a multilayer perceptron MLP method will be used Rumelhart and McClelland This method is based on neural networks modelling.

The algorithm is as follows. This procedure generates an optimal neural net. The results from the neural net are then compared with those from the regression analysis. To improve the basic ARIMA p, d, q specification additional variables are then added, namely the frequency of negative and positive overreactions, respectively:.

### What is cryptocurrency?

We perform a variety of statistical tests, both parametric ANOVA analysis and non-parametric Kruskal—Wallis tests , for seasonality in the monthly frequency of overreactions, which provides information on whether or not overreactions are more likely in some specific months of the year. The data used are BitCoin daily and monthly prices for the period As a first step, the frequency distribution of log returns is analysed see Table 18 and Fig.

As can be seen, two symmetric fat tails are present in the distribution. The next step is the choice of thresholds for detecting overreactions. Detailed results are presented in Appendix 2. Visual inspection of Figs. To provide additional evidence we carry out ANOVA analysis and Kruskal—Wallis tests Table 2 ; both confirm that the differences between years are statistically significant, i. Next we carry out a correlation analysis. There appears to be a positive rather than negative, as one would expect correlation between BitCoin prices and negative overreactions.

By contrast, there is a negative correlation in the case of returns and log returns. The overreaction multiplier exhibits a rather strong negative correlation with BitCoin log returns. Finally, the overall number of overreactions has a rather weak correlation with prices. Figure 1 reports the cross-correlation between Bitcoin log returns and the frequency of both positive and negative overreactions for the whole sample period for different leads and lags.

The highest coefficient corresponds to lag length zero, which means that there is no need to shift the data. Cross-correlation between Bitcoin log returns and frequency of overreactions over the whole sample period for different leads and lags. To analyse further the relationship between BitCoin log returns and the frequency of overreactions we carry out ADF tests on the series of interest see Table 4. The unit root null is rejected in most cases implying stationarity. The next step is testing H1 by running a simple linear regression and one with dummy variables see Sect.

The results for BitCoin closes, returns and log returns regressed against all overreactions, negative and positive overreactions are presented in Tables 5 , 6 , and 7 , respectively.

## Bitcoin Peaked 2 Years Ago. New Competition Is on the Way.

In all three cases the specification with the highest explanatory power is the one including negative and positive overreactions as separate variables, though in the case of BitCoin closes the positive sign of the coefficient on negative overreactions is not what one would expect. To sum up, consistently with the theoretical priors, the total number of overreactions is not a significant regressor in any case. The best specification is the simple linear multiplier regression model with the frequency of positive and negative overreactions as regressors, and the best results are obtained in the case of log returns as indicated by the multiple R for the whole model and the p -values for the estimated coefficients.

Specifically, the selected specification is the following:. On the whole, the above evidence supports H1. The difference between the actual and estimated values of Bitcoin can be seen as an indication of whether Bitcoin is over- or under-estimated and therefore a price increase or decrease should be expected.

## Bitcoin fluctuations and the frequency of price overreactions

Obviously, BitCoin should be bought in the case of undervaluation and sold in the case of overvaluation till the divergence between actual and estimated values disappears, at which stage positions should be closed. As mentioned before, to show that the selected specification is indeed the best linear model we use the multilayer perceptron MLP method. Negative and positive overreactions are the independent variables the entry points and log returns are the dependent variable the exit point in the neural net.

The learning algorithm previously described generates the following optimal neural net MLP Fig. Optimal neural net structure. This figure displays the optimal neural network structure: the entry points red and pink triangles , neural network methods learning, control, test; the green, pink and red squares, respectively , and the exit point BitCoin log returns; the pink square on the right.

We compare it with the linear neural net L model, which consists of 2 inputs and 1 output. The results are presented in Tables 8 and 9. As can be seen, the neural net based on the multilayer perceptron structure provides better results than the linear neural net: the control error is lower 0. Figure 3 shows the distribution of BitCoin log returns, actual vs estimated from the regression model and the neural network.

Distribution of BitCoin log returns: actual vs estimated from the regression model and the neural network. As can be seen the estimates from the regression model and the neural network, respectively are very similar and very close to the actual values, which suggests that the regression model Eq. The parameter estimates are presented in Table To establish whether this specification can be improved by including information about the frequency of overreactions, ARMAX models see Eq. The estimated parameters are reported in Table Model 4 adds the frequency of negative overreactions and positive overreactions to Model 1.

Figure 4 plots the estimated and actual values of BitCoin log returns. Distribution of BitCoin log returns: actual vs estimated based on Model 5. The estimates for the VAR 1 -model are reported in Table This model appears to be data congruent: it is stable no root lies outside the unit circle , and there is no evidence of autocorrelation in the residuals. Options Currencies News. Tools Home. Stocks Stocks. Options Options. Futures Futures. Currencies Currencies. Trading Signals New Recommendations. News News.

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