An increased probability of micro earthquakes in the places where HBF was carried out, as well as in places where the used liquid is pumped into underground cavities, for example, for utilizing it, has been confirmed scientifically. The possibility of gas leakage into the atmosphere during the well construction and operation stages relates to more long-term and least studied problems. According to the assessments presented in Howarth et al. The use of shale gas instead of coal makes it possible to achieve significantly smaller amount of hazardous emissions from thermal power stations into the atmosphere.
Thus, it can be assumed that the use of shale gas may entail reduction of NO x emissions by a factor of two and complete elimination of SO 2 emissions. However, in calculating the environmental gains it is important to take into account the amount of emissions over the entire chain of production process, and the environmental gain estimated with such an approach turns to be significantly smaller, because the leaks of methane, a gas producing an extremely strong greenhouse effect, which occur during its production and transportation, significantly amplify the total greenhouse effect.
With the percentage of leaks corresponding to the upper range of existing estimates around eight per cent of the gas yield , a power station burning shale gas becomes similar in total emissions to conventional pulverized coal-fired power stations. There are extremely contradictory assessments for economic indicators of the shale gas production.
Some specialists believe that the companies producing shale gas artificially report lower costs, than real net cost of shale gas. But there is also another point of view. This condensate is widely used in the production of plastics, and the prices for it are higher than for gas itself, and it is exactly due to gas condensate that the producing companies get additional gain in the price. Thus, selling byproduct components makes the shale gas production profitable even with low domestic prices.
As regards dry gas, its production under the currently existing conditions is still unprofitable. Nonetheless, the US Government is quite satisfied with the currently existing gas prices, because it is exactly what is badly needed for the US economy for stimulating its growth. This is why the Government actively supports the shale projects. The low interest rate for loans is a factor stimulating investments in gas wells, despite low prices for consumers. In addition, the US power companies stake serious hopes on export of gas products and production technologies as a means for achieving better profitability.
In addition, the current unprecedentedly low level of domestic prices will hardly remain and will likely start growing at a stable annual rate of 3. Unfortunately, discussions about the environmental problems related to shale gas production almost always imply only such regional aspects as disruption to rural communities, earthquakes and ground water pollution. However, shale gas, as well as other unconventional gas sources coal-bed methane and tight gas , contains great amounts of carbon, which can significantly change the global carbon balance and lead to substantial changes in the climate system, if released into the atmosphere.
Here we evaluate the greenhouse footprint of unconventional gas production and consumption. The predicted values of unconventional gas production are based on the estimates of unconventional gas resources given in Table 3, where the results of our earlier calculations Klimenko and Tereshin b are presented for comparison purposes note that calculations in Klimenko and Tereshin b take into account only conventional gas resources.
It is obvious that an introduction of unconventional gas sources would sharply increase the role played by natural gas in the world economy, and the peak of annual recovery would grow from 6 to roughly 11 billion tce and shift into the second half of the twenty-first century Fig. Even at the end of the current century, total gas production is expected to exceed contemporary values, while a complete depletion of these resources is expected only at the end of the twenty-second century.
Natural gas will likely become the main component of the world energy balance as early as at the beginning of the s. One can assume that by this time a mass production of unconventional gas will be developed in several countries outside North America and first of all in China, India, Australia, and Argentina. Natural gas production tentative forecast of the present study : total 1 , including unconventional gas 2 , conventional gas based on data from Klimenko and Tereshin b 3 , and the data of energy statistics BP ; EIA a, b for the total production 4 and unconventional gas production 5.
Nevertheless, from the viewpoint of possible changes in the atmospheric composition and climate, carbon dioxide emissions from combustion of both natural gas and all other fossil fuels are essential, because they depend on the total energy consumption and the world fuel mix. The results presented here are based on the genetic forecast of energy consumption see the detailed description of the procedure in Klimenko and Tereshin a, b, , which has proved its reliability in long-term forecasting. This method implies stabilization of the world energy consumption at the level of around 30 billion tce by the end of the current century, with the dominating role played by non-fossil sources mostly unconventional and renewable sources URS — solar, wind, hydro, and bioenergy sources.
Experience has shown that the long-term forecast of the energy mix represents a much more complicated problem; therefore, we will further consider two extreme scenarios and an intermediate one, namely: the whole volume of unconventional gas consumption is used to substitute either coal Scenario 1 , or URS Scenario 2 , or coal and URS in equal portions Scenario 3.
The results of simulations presented in Fig. The substitution of coal with unconventional gas would lead to rapidly reaching already in two decades the peak of carbon emission at slightly above 9 Gt of carbon per year, while the replacement of URS causes growth of this peak almost to 12 Gt of carbon per year and shifts it to the second half of the present century. The model of simulated changes of CO 2 content in the atmosphere based on Scenarios 1—3 see text for comments.
Under different scenarios of unconventional gas resources development, the changes in the global carbon cycle are significant and they are clearly seen from the variations in carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere Fig. Simulation of the global variations in atmospheric CO 2 content have been conducted by Dr. Olga V. Mikushina using the box-diffusion model of the carbon cycle; that of the surface air temperature, using the regression-analytical model of climate developed at the Moscow Power Engineering Institute Klimenko et al.
The simulated mean global air temperature changes departures from the mean values for the period from to based on Scenarios 1—3 see text for comments compared to instrumental data 4 Jones et al. As was mentioned above, the shale gas production is associated with significant methane leakage rate into the atmosphere, up to 4—8 per cent of total gas production, and this value is considerably higher than in the case of conventional natural gas production.
With respect to this, some researchers claim serious concerns that the release of these amounts of methane, whose greenhouse effect is 25 times stronger than that of carbon dioxide, can intensify global warming. Based on our simulations, under the assumption that technological leakages amount to six per cent of total gas production, we argue that the maximal methane release into the atmosphere from shale gas production will be reached between — and will account for — million tons per year, or 10—15 per cent of the estimated total emission from all its sources.
- Glencore says coal an investment opportunity despite CO2 worry.
- investment for coal mining;
- can you purchase bitcoin stock!
- buy shares using bitcoin;
- online btc mine!
- Looking for other ways to read this?.
This will lead to a certain increase in the methane atmospheric content and corresponding higher radiative forcing of this gas during this period by about ten per cent as compared to the basic scenario Klimenko and Tereshin a. However, due to the anticipated decline of unconventional gas production with the respective reduction of methane emission and owing to the comparatively short lifetime of this gas in the atmosphere 12 years , the methane concentration will eventually approach the value of the basic scenario during the twenty-second century.
Finally, we estimate the contribution of the additional methane due to shale gas production to the anticipated temperature response a few hundredths of a degree Celsius. However, a slow-down of URS growth rate and preservation of the current orientation to fossil fuels are very dangerous because both the carbon dioxide concentration and then the air temperature will exceed these critical limits well before the end of the current century and remain beyond them for at least two or three centuries.
Under these conditions, a significant increase in the acidity of the oceanic upper layer is inevitable, and this will cause massive extinction of many marine species, first of all, corals Knowlton ; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. This would mean an economic collapse of many developing countries where tourism and offshore fishery are the basic sources of income.
For example, in Asia coral reefs alone provide about one-quarter of the annual total fish catch and food for about a billion people. In the Caribbean basin tourism is a major foreign currency earner and in some countries it accounts for up to a half of the gross domestic product. The latter will likely result in significant changes in the global distribution of surface winds, rainfall and soil moisture and could lead to a global reduction of the terrestrial vegetation net primary production by several per cent Vellinga and Wood There is still a substantial uncertainty concerning economic and environmental aspects of mass shale gas production which leaves room for doubts and hampers its further development.
Provided present resources assessments are correct, unconventional gas and, first of all, shale gas may solve some regional energy import substitution and environmental coal substitution problems. The large-scale production of shale gas outside North America will hardly be possible in the nearest future. The pattern in which the shale gas reserves are distributed over the globe allows us to assume that it can replace to a significant extent the natural gas supplied from Russia in some European countries Poland and Ukraine , but this is unlikely to take place until the end of the current decade.
However, unconventional gas becomes increasingly important and will make up more than 50 per cent of global gas production in the second half of the current century. The net cost of shale gas production is currently several times higher than that of conventional natural gas in major gas producing countries. Due to the specific features of shale gas production technology, the costs for maintaining shale gas wells in serviceable state are significantly higher than in traditional deposits.
The production of shale gas entails considerable emissions of methane into the atmosphere.
Shale Gas: An Energy Miracle or a Climate Disaster?
Fortunately, this is not a dangerous factor aggravating the greenhouse effect even if the amount of leaks is close to their upper limit estimated at eight per cent of the yield. The expansion of shale gas production does not come in serious contradiction with the growing climate protection requirements. In addition, a substitution of coal by shale gas will result in twofold reduction of NO x emissions and complete elimination of SO 2 emissions. The shale gas problem has many aspects, of which the political aspect is undoubtedly the dominating one. As a new source of energy, shale gas is noticeably inferior to traditional natural gas not only in its consumer properties price, environmental, and technological attractiveness , but also in the availability of resources and will not be able to seriously compete with natural gas at the global level in the nearest two to three decades.
In the short term, the shale gas can become an attractive resource only at regional and local levels and only under the conditions of strong protective measures. To maintain stability of the climate system, the production of abundant unconventional gas resources should be accompanied by the equivalent reduction of coal use. In this case one can view shale and other unconventional gas sources as an energy bridge over the current century yet reducing greenhouse gases emissions compared to oil and coal.
Shale Gas: An Energy Miracle or a Climate Disaster?
The authors are thankful to Dr. Mikushina for model simulations and A. Morozova for collecting data. Arzhanov, M. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics 48 6 : — Statistical Review of World Energy Dmitrievskiy, A. Gas Industry 8: 44— Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to US EIA.
Fedorov, A. Patterns and Mechanisms of Early Pliocene Warmth. Nature : 43— Hoegh-Guldberg, O. Science : — Howarth, R. Climatic Change Letters 4 : — DOI Jevrejeva, S. Global and Planetary Change 80—81 1 : 14— Jones, P. Climatic Research Unit. Norwich: University of East Anglia. While And yet, scores of banks and institutional investors continue to pump money into supporting and expanding this fossil fuel industry, new research finds.
The investment will be made in clean coal facilities, including coal gasification and coal-bed methane, Shah said at a signing ceremony to develop new mines. In South Africa, however, building a new mine, especially using public money, is proving close to impossible. However the move threatens valuable forests and indigenous land rights, while expanding a polluting and financially challenged industry.. Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the auction of 41 coal mining The rapid development of coal industry in Shanxi province in China has important effects on its economic development.
- Energy Conversion!
- bitcoin segwit2x fork block.
- investment for coal mining.
- is bitcoin worth investing in 2021!
- imac 5k bitcoin mining;
- investment for coal mining;
- Glencore says coal an investment opportunity despite CO2 worry.
A large amount of money has been invested into the coal industry and other related industries during the recent years. In order to analyze the investment effect of coal industry, based on the This statistic displays the capital investment in the coal mining industry in Canada from to In , the capital investment in Canada's coal mining industry amounted to some 0. Of these coal mining projects, the United-Wambo project by Glencore and Peabody is the only one categorised as more-advanced.
Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available. Do you enjoy reading reports from the Academies online for free? Sign up for email notifications and we'll let you know about new publications in your areas of interest when they're released. Get This Book. Visit NAP. Looking for other ways to read this? No thanks. Suggested Citation: "Energy Conversion. Energy Conversion. Page 93 Share Cite.